imminent. While the December rate increase is now pretty much fully priced, we
remain sceptical of the view that the entire monetary policy divergence story is fully
priced. We would say it is more that the initial phase of divergence is priced. For
example, the futures market currently implies only a small probability of a rate
increase in March and we expect that probability to rise in the early part of 2016,
helping to drive the dollar stronger still. Short-term US yields will ultimately be driven
by data not Fed rhetoric.