The joint probabilities are presented in Tables 4 and 5. The conditional probabilities are derived by dividing the joint probabilities by the prior or marginal probabilities. The posterior probabilities, that is, probabilities of occurrence of the identified risk factors given the fish enterprise are presented in Table 6. The values of the posterior probabilities of disease and parasites was largest both in catfish only and in catfish and tilapia. The mean values of the posterior probabilities of disease and parasites were 0.34 and 0.46 for excessive rain /flood. Therefore, disease and parasites and excessive rain /flood were the two major risk factors in fish production in the study area. These risk factors are preventable with efficient management practices. Such management practices could include pay more attention to breeds and varieties of fish the farmer stock in his farm in other words farmers should be kin at selecting stocks from reputable sources, stocks should not be selected based only on rate of growth performance but also on resistance to diseases. Farmers should ensure that adequate disease and pest preventive measures are in place as well as seek prompt veterinary assistance in periods of outbreak. To reduce lost due to pilfering, farmers should be vigilant, employ adequate security around their ponds