GEORGIA: Real GDP growth will be slower in 2015 ลิงก์เอกสาร ProQuest บทคัดย่อ: Worsening economic prospects in 2015. Georgia has already started to be affected by the substantial deterioration in Russia's economic performance and the steep depreciation of the ruble against major currencies, particularly in the final quarter of 2014. Russia became Georgia's third-most-important trading partner in 2014, and remittance flows from Russia are an important source of foreign exchange. Currencies in the Caucasus and Central Asia have faced depreciation pressures, with Turkmenistan forced to devalue its currency on January 1, followed by Azerbaijan on February 21. เอกสารฉบับเต็ม: SUBJECT:Worsening economic prospects in 2015. SIGNIFICANCE:Georgia has already started to be affected by the substantial deterioration in Russia's economic performance and the steep depreciation of the ruble against major currencies, particularly in the final quarter of 2014. Russia became Georgia's third-most-important trading partner in 2014, and remittance flows from Russia are an important source of foreign exchange. Currencies in the Caucasus and Central Asia have faced depreciation pressures, with Turkmenistan forced to devalue its currency on January 1, followed by Azerbaijan on February 21. ANALYSIS: Impacts. Domestic demand will fall this year, as remittance flows weaken. The devaluation of Azerbaijan's manat in late February will have a negative impact on exports, as it is Georgia's top export market. If Western sanctions against Russia are not lifted in July, as expected, this will worsen the outlook for the Georgian economy. According to preliminary National Statistics Office (Geostat) data, real GDP grew by 4.7% in 2014, just below the government's 5.0% target ( see GEORGIA: Robust GDP growth is expected to continue - October 15, 2014 ). The authorities had targeted 5% growth again for 2015; however, Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, confirmed on February 22 that the government had lowered its growth forecast for 2015, to 2.0-2.5%. In a press interview in late January, National Bank (NBG) Chairman Giorgi Kadagidze said the recent downward trend in the lari had led to a "significant risk" of an increase in inflationary pressures. The bank raised its main policy rate, the refinancing rate, by 50 basis points on February 11, to 4.5% -- the first rate increase in twelve months. In its press release, the NBG said the fall in the year-on-year inflation rate in January to 1.4%, from 2.0% in December, was primarily due to lower global fuel prices. It expected inflationary pressures to remain below its 5% target in the first half of the year, but to reach it by the year-end. In February, the rate fell further, to 1.3%.